Professional Grade: Week 9 showdowns
Monday Night Fantasy Preview: BAL-PIT
The swap shop is officially open.
With a little less than three weeks until the trade deadline in the GMC Professional Grade League (it's Wednesday, Nov. 21, same as in ESPN standard leagues) and five weeks until the beginning of the playoffs (they start in Week 14), it's no surprise that we've seen a rash of roster tinkering in the past week-plus. Still, four trades in five days? That's nothing short of remarkable.
This week's big name changing hands: Steven Jackson. Could there be a greater unknown heading into the season's second half? The No. 2 pick overall in our draft -- taken by yours truly -- Jackson's value could range wildly, from first-round, elite back who carries a fantasy team into the playoffs, to a guy who barely plays the rest of the year.
So, in Trade No. 4 of the GMC Professional Grade League season, I shipped Jackson and Greg Olson to Nando Di Fino (2-6, 10th, lost to Stephania Bell, 84-74, in Week 8) in exchange for Clinton Portis, Jeremy Shockey and Jesse Chatman.
The logic, at least on my end, was simple: Jackson is off this week, and his groin and now back troubles threaten his Week 10 status. Portis, by comparison, gets the Jets this week and the Cowboys, against whom he had 84 rushing yards in a score in their most recent meeting, in Week 11, 2006. He'll give me a safe starter for now, and Chatman will offer depth.
Why are those two weeks in particular so important? Check out my opponents in those games: Harris (4-4, 7th, lost to Schwab, 73-69, in Week 8) this week, and Matthew Berry (5-2-1, 2nd, tied Nate Ravitz, 105-105, in Week 8) in Week 11. I'm not going to proclaim either one a win-or-go-home game, not quite this early in the season, but the bottom line is I can't afford a loss to both. So what's safer, the safety of Portis facing perhaps his best matchup of the season this week, or the risky nature of Jackson?
It's a tough call many Jackson owners face today, and remember, the circumstances of each league are always different and can often force moves you might not otherwise expect, as many readers call it, "in a vacuum."
Di Fino, meanwhile, had a different take on his motives behind the deal.
"The Steven Jackson trade was a gamble I had to take," he said. "It's tough staring at 10-of-10 in the league ranking and being stuck at the bottom. I have a reputation to uphold!"
All joking aside, Di Fino still holds out hope at a remarkable run at a playoff spot, and with him technically only two games out of the No. 4 seed (as things stand today), it's not as impossible as a lot of owners tend to treat it when ranking last in the standings.
"I have, arguably, three of the best six wide receivers in the league in Plaxico Burress, Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards," said Di Fino. "Trading one of them away could bring me a top-flight running back, but at this point, I really didn't need to take away any strengths; I needed to gamble. So I got Shaun Alexander from [Scott] Engel last week, and then got your offer on Monday.
"I figured it was now or never to take a chance on Jackson's back and groin being good enough for him to return to form, so I countered with an offer for Jackson, thinking that you didn't feel like waiting around with little running back depth and an actual shot at a playoff spot. I would have eventually offered you a wide receiver if it came to it, but I saw you had holes at running back, and a Chatman/Portis combo gave you some great depth. I threw in Shockey just to sweeten the deal -- you can now trade either him or Tony Gonzalez -- but the centerpiece of the trade, for me, was Jackson."
Swift thinking there, Nando, and yes, Gonzalez and Shockey did immediately hit the trading block, though that's a move I anticipate gets done next week, what with Shockey on his bye in Week 9.
Di Fino wasn't done with the surprises, though. While everyone in fantasy football land was racing to the waiver wire to nab Ryan Grant, Di Fino, the man with the top waiver position in each of the past two weeks, opted to pass on the Packers' newest no-name running back. Instead, he grabbed the Panthers defense, allowing Engel (2-5-1, 9th, lost to Eric Karabell, 92-69, in Week 8) to strengthen his backfield by adding Grant.
"I think he's just going to be the latest in a string of soon-to-be forgotten names to make a big splash one week," said Di Fino of Grant, "and then be benched in favor of someone like Brandon Jackson or Vernand Morency."
Surprisingly, Engel seemed in agreement with Di Fino's assessment.
"Grant could easily be a one-week wonder -- I am not excited yet," said Engel. "I have liked Adimchinobe Echemandu since the preseason and if his hamstring problem does not linger, he could be the bigger surprise."
In a span of 17 hours, Engel added Grant, Echemandu, Jeff Garcia and James Jones on Thursday, strengthening his struggling squad. As I always advise, never waste a roster spot. Never. Even Engel, at 2-5-1, plans a run at the playoffs, if only because he's among the league's most active owners. In nine weeks he has signed 33 players.
"I am not giving up or dragging my feet," said Engel. "I have been in too many leagues to expect them all to go well."
For the second time this season, Ravitz (2-4-2, 8th, tied Berry, 105-105, in Week 8) managed at least 98 points, yet finished the week tied. That's quite a rarity in fantasy football, and has many in the league begging for a tiebreaker to be instituted next season.
"Boo! Ties have really messed me up this year," said Ravitz. "I could be 4-4 and right in the thick of the race. Of course, I could also be 2-6, but I'm a glass-half-full guy."
How about looking at a tie as a sort of "half-win"? With that, Nate, you'd be 3-5, and only a game out of the playoffs. That's not so bad!
"Hines Ward will probably stay on my bench," said Ravitz of his Week 9 strategy. "The Ravens totally shut down the Pittsburgh passing game in two matchups last season, and while Big Ben is a better player now, I can't see starting Ward over Joey Galloway."
For those of you keeping up with the goings-on in our league -- shame on you if you aren't! -- here's the result of my Week 8 matchup with league points leader Ken Daube, who called me a "cupcake" headed into the week: Cockcroft 83, Daube 76.
Of course, had Daube not made the bold move to bench Carson Palmer (12 fantasy points) for Brian Griese (4), I'd have lost the matchup by one point. Still, it sure seemed like the whole fantasy world was all over that Griese matchup, and boy, was it ever a stinker.
"So ... What kind of sprinkles do you prefer on your cupcake, chocolate or rainbow?" I asked Daube following our Week 8 battle.
"That game was like a birthday gift for you, so let's make it rainbow sprinkles and I'll also throw in one of those candles that never goes out," said Daube. "One point each from Laveranues Coles, LaMont Jordan and Steve Smith and only four from Griese. It's unbelievable. You can't score seven points from four slots and win."
Always one to smack talk -- a good thing, since it riles up our league -- Daube didn't stop with the bold forecasts. His target this time: Berry, who trails Daube for the season by a mere four points. Should be quite the showdown.
"A second item in the haven't-learned-my-lesson-yet department -- I went into the boss' office [Wednesday] night and told him that he's going to lose this weekend," said Daube. "He can complain all he wants about Bill Belichick being 'The Gooch' and running up scores, but without it, his team isn't nearly as good. I'm gonna go all 'Gooch' on Matthew's team this week and show that I have the highest scoring team for a reason."
Among the other things to check back in on from last week: Harris' dead-spot strategy with regard to his tight end, Benjamin Watson, sidelined a second straight game in Week 8 due to an ankle injury. While Harris pulled off the "W" a week earlier, things didn't go quite so smoothly for him in Week 8; Schwab took him down by a mere four points.
That's a painful loss to swallow, considering Vernon Davis (13 fantasy points), Tony Scheffler (8) and Jeff King (6), each a viable one-week sub (or better) could have provided enough points off the free-agent wire to carry Harris to victory.
Harris is my Week 9 opponent, and interestingly enough, as of press time, he was sticking with Watson despite his questionable status. We'll see how it works out in Week No. 3 of the dead-spot strategy, but it'll hurt if my nine healthy men can't beat his eight.
Among Harris' other maneuvers in a key matchup between us: He's slotting Lee Evans in at wide receiver, hoping to ride his two-game hot streak, while surprisingly giving up on Vince Young, who led his team for five of the first six weeks of the season.
"I have, indeed, jumped ship," said Harris. "He's the fantasy bust of the year, since he hasn't suffered a major injury."
"I'm biting the bullet and getting Lee Evans back in there," added Harris, turning his focus to his receivers. "It should be a very tasty matchup against a shaky Cincy secondary. In the battle of first-round cornerbacks, Darrelle Revis is so far proving to be twice the player Leon Hall is. Evans has posted two productive fantasy weeks in a row. Last week's, of course, was a crummy throw that Evans basically lucked into in garbage time and then took to the house, but beggars can't be choosers."
• Schwab (6-2, 1st, beat Harris, 73-69, in Week 8) still laments his Week 1 decision to sit Randy Moss, but with a one-game lead on the rest of our league, he's a man with an air of confidence headed into Week 9.
"Playing my best team this week, period," he said. "Lucky to be in first, but I could have easily won Week 1 if I played Moss ... Life goes on. Just win baby!"
Schwab had no fears with Manning in the grand showdown against the Patriots this week, and kept him active. Surely he's thinking Manning will be more like the man who won three straight games against the Patriots, topping 300 yards passing in each, than the one who kicked off his career against them 2-10 with 21 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.
• Sooner or later every fantasy owner faces that most difficult of dilemmas: The age-old "my fantasy team versus my real-life team" conundrum. So where do you stand? Would you prefer to see your favorite NFL team suffer at the hand of an opposing fantasy player of yours? Or do you stand tall behind your NFL team, fantasy team be damned?
Karabell (4-4, 6th, beat Engel, 92-69, in Week 8), sticks to the latter.
"I did think for about a second about sticking with Drew Brees over Tony Romo, since Brees has played well lately and isn't the one facing my fave team, the Eagles," he said. "Then I woke up and remembered we are professionals and adhere to a responsibility to pick the best player. Man, if only I had Derek Anderson. Anyway, Romo's the better play, but I'll still yell at him to throw five picks anyway."
Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
